Published The Advocate, July 2, 2005


EVER since Moses stumbled down the mountain under the weight of the tablets of stone, all political parties have embraced the tempting charms of Laura Norder. Not enough police; sentences too lenient; the citizenry is scared. Political operators know how to push Laura’s buttons. Simple in theory except in Tasmania where the law and order wheels have fallen off rather badly. Our crime rates are much, much lower than the national average, according to the latest figures released by the Australia Bureau of Statistics. We have the lowest rates in the nation for murder, abduction, robbery, blackmail, unlawful entry, motor vehicle theft and all other theft. Pathetic, really, if one is thinking of campaigning on law and order at the next election. Oppositions always accuse governments of not being tough enough on crime. An easy target, a vote winner. Bring back the lash and hanging’s too good for ‘em. Governments, if they have any sense, lay early claim to Laura to ensure no room is left for their opponents to move into bed with her. Also, sounding tough on crime does not necessarily require a lot of extra government spending: a few more cops; the building of an extra prison wing from time to time; but many stern words. It can get out of hand, however. Some years ago California found it was spending more on new prisons than on new schools. People being people, they are easily frightened by crime especially as they grow older. They are inclined to believe the justice system is too soft and the criminals get off too lightly - contrary to the facts in most cases. The public always thinks crime trends are worse than they are. In one British crime survey, the public believed that average jail sentences were a third shorter than they really were. So what are we to make of the latest ABS crime stats? Tasmania Police attribute the low rates to new technology and better partnerships between the community and police. Possibly so. More likely, if you ask me, the worst of the crims happened to be behind bars when the ABS collected the data. Because of Tasmania’s relatively small population, locking up the right people at the right time could make a significant difference to a crime survey. For example, the rate of house break-ins at Devonport fell markedly earlier this year after one particular gang of youths was arrested. Just wait until they get out again. Crime has a political currency, that is true. The concepts of deterrence and retribution quickly take on political, not judicial, requirements in the hands of vote-hungry politicians. But whipping up a crime fenzy when there is comparatively little crime is not going to be easy. People do not like to be frightened in their beds but they do not like being frightened for cynical political motives either. Now there’s something to send a chill down the spine of any political party: an unexpected outbreak of lawfulness.